![]() ![]() On account of its failure it didn't have as major consequences as others, but it caused me to update my world model more. That's a bit of a straw man, though to be fair it appears my question didn't fit into your world model as it does in mine.įor me, the insurrection was in the top 5 most informative/surprising US political events in 2017-2021. While this doesn't increase our estimates of the rate of AI development, it does suggest that the goalpost for superhuman intellectual performance in all areas is closer than we might have thought otherwise. Or a room full of toddlers with superpowers, to use the CFAR phrase. It's starting to look like humans are less complicated than we thought - more like a bunch of current-level AI architectures squished together in the same brain (with some capacity to train new ones in deployment) than like a powerful generally applicable intelligence. It's happened quite a few times now that 'naive' big milestones have been hit unexpectedly soon "without any major innovations or new techniques" - chess, go, starcraft, dota, gpt-3, dall-e, and now diplomacy. ![]() That said, I think this is actually a good reason to update towards freaking out. There may be a level of play where decision theory and commitments are relevant, but humans just aren't that good. Humans are not decision theoretical geniuses just saying whatever people want you to hear while playing optimally for yourself is sufficient to win. Like chess grandmasters being outperformed by a simple search tree when it was supposed to be the peak of human intelligence, I think this will have the same effect of disenchanting the game of diplomacy. It's just the phrase players that are most likely to win use in that boardstate with its internal strategy. It outputting the string "I will keep Gal a DMZ" does not have the semantic meaning of it committing to keep troops out of Gal. As far as I can tell, the AI has no specialized architecture for deciding about its future strategies or giving semantic meaning to its words.
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